Vacant or Partially Occupied GuidelinesOne of the core issues surrounding vacant or partially occupied commercial property insurance is a lack of available coverage options. There are not many companies that want to insure a partially occupied building. In many cases, a traditional ISO-backed policy will simply not cover buildings struggling with occupancy issues. It is also extremely important to make sure an owner’s existing policy is void before pursuing other options. There could be situations where an owner thinks his policy is still accurate, when it’s actually no longer providing risk protection. For those who violate the vacancy guidelines in their existing policy, options can become dramatically limited. Securing a policy through the excess and surplus lines market, where coverage is likely to be more expensive, is frequently the only way forward. Vacancy worries almost always coincide with the need for additional belt tightening. The emergence of a new and complex set of liabilities and exposures, combined with the need to trim budgets and reduce premiums, can be a non-starter for those who are unwilling to adapt to new circumstances. Even if a building is experiencing partial vacancy, providers may identify new risks, and renewing an existing policy becomes a problem. The reluctance to insure, or the need to institute higher premiums or simply insure for less, can place tremendous new pressures on owners and operators. Potentially costly exposures arise from a lack of consistent professional maintenance. Day-to-day funding for routine maintenance and upkeep is often one of the first casualties in the budget of a vacant or lightly occupied building. This attempt to save a few dollars can often have a detrimental long-term impact on the insurance and risk profile of a property. Alarm systems may be left off in a misguided attempt to save on electricity bills, increasing the risk of vandalism or theft. The increased risk of fire in vacant buildings is a tremendous concern for insurers, as sprinkler system maintenance and testing often falls by the wayside when occupancy drops. The fees associated with proper maintenance can be a significantly easier burden to handle than the policy limitations, increased rates and premiums that will follow an accident claim and possible lawsuit. Save Money Without Cutting CornersInsurers and owners can work together to save money by re-examining priorities and exposures. Some exposures are unavoidable, and the character and attributes of the building itself can play a large role in determining how much leeway is available to insurers. When determining an appropriate level of coverage, providers will consider the context of surrounding buildings (clusters of vacant properties may present more of a crime risk) and other key elements such as the age of a building, when the plumbing was updated, the structural integrity of the roof, the electric infrastructure and other basics. The most important thing owners can do is fully understand their existing policy. Some owners may consider cutting rental rates to help bolster occupancy levels, and in some cases it may be possible to negotiate with the underwriter to navigate a temporary lull in occupancy. Steps such as hiring additional security and taking other safety and maintenance precautions may be enough to satisfy the insurer that risks to the property have not become too great. In almost all cases, however, these are temporary measures; the only true long-term solution to change the policy or improve occupancy levels. Working together, both the property owner and the insurer can identify the best ways to handle changes in potential exposures. By taking a closer look at recent claims, it is often possible to identify a cost-saving solution by increasing the deductible on an element of coverage where the exposure is less pronounced. When it comes to insuring properties, the best way to save money is not just to understand where problems exist, but to also identify where they do not. Follow the Green When Going GreenGreen construction and design is an important factor to consider when developing insurance strategies. Some carriers are offering new insurance products to cover renovation and rebuilding expenses. While it’s slightly more expensive to insure a green building, owners are drawn to long-term savings through fewer health claims and health insurance benefits, higher employee and operational efficiencies and lower maintenance costs. For any vacancy or property with lower than expected occupancy, the importance of a thorough examination of the current terms of a policy and the past history of claims is paramount. Going forward, owners and insurers who are best able to handle new exposures that crop up in this changing economic landscape will be in a good position when financial circumstances improve. — Daniel Larmore and Patrick Grace are executive vice presidents of Meadowbrook Insurance Agency, a division of Meadowbrook Insurance Group.
For more information on Houston office space, Houston retail space or Houston warehouse space and Houston industrial space, please call 713 782-0260 or see my web site at : www.houstonrealtyadvisors.com Offer opportunities for Houston office space. Thank you for your interest.
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Thursday, November 19, 2009
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Industrial sales dropped to $140 million during the recent period
Industrial sales dropped to $140 million during the recent period from $697 million in the prior period. The price for warehouses rose to $75 per-square-foot from $44 per-square-foot for the year ending Sept. 30, 2008, according to the report from LOOPNET, Inc.
Several Large Office properties traded hands while a total of $459 million in office properties exchanged owners in the recent yearlong period, compared to $2 billion during the period ending in September 2008. The average price per-square-foot dropped to $77 in 2009 from $155 in 2008, according to the report.
Sales of commercial properties in the Houston area during the one-year period ending Sept. 30, 2009 totaled $1.75 billion — an 84 percent decline from sales posted during the 12-month period ending Sept. 30, 2008.
For more information on Houston office space, Houston retail space or Houston warehouse space and Houston industrial space, please call 713 782-0260 or see my web site at : www.houstonrealtyadvisors.com Offer opportunities for Houston office space. Thank you for your interest.
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Several Large Office properties traded hands while a total of $459 million in office properties exchanged owners in the recent yearlong period, compared to $2 billion during the period ending in September 2008. The average price per-square-foot dropped to $77 in 2009 from $155 in 2008, according to the report.
Sales of commercial properties in the Houston area during the one-year period ending Sept. 30, 2009 totaled $1.75 billion — an 84 percent decline from sales posted during the 12-month period ending Sept. 30, 2008.
For more information on Houston office space, Houston retail space or Houston warehouse space and Houston industrial space, please call 713 782-0260 or see my web site at : www.houstonrealtyadvisors.com Offer opportunities for Houston office space. Thank you for your interest.
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Friday, November 6, 2009
CADENCE MCSHANE TO BUILD OUT NEW LSCS CAMPUS
Lone Star College System (LSCS) has selected the Houston office of Cadence McShane Construction Co. to complete the build-out of its new campus. LSCS recently acquired the former Hewlett Packard office campus, a five-building, 1.2 million-square-foot property that is located at 20515 State Highway 249 in Houston, and plans to use it as a new campus. The school plans to use it as its new consolidate Houston campus. Construction will include extensive renovations to the building interiors, envelopes, core and shell, parking deck and immediate grounds. Once the project is complete, which is expected in June 2010, LSCS will relocate several departments from its existing administrative offices in The Woodlands, Texas, as well as its Williow Chase Center operations in Houston. The project architects are Kirksey Architecture and VLK Architects. For more information on Houston office space, Houston retail space or Houston warehouse space and Houston industrial space, please call 713 782-0260 or see my web site at : www.houstonrealtyadvisors.com Offer opportunities for Houston office space. Thank you for your interest.
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Tuesday, October 27, 2009
53,232 Sq Ft Downtown Office Lease Houston, Tx.
HOUSTON — Grubb & Ellis has arranged a sublease for 53,232 square feet at Wedge Tower, an office building located at 1415 Louisiana St. in downtown Houston. The subtenant, Eagle Rock Energy Partners, will be relocating from its Houston location at 16701 Greenspoint Dr. The sublessor is Dominion Exploration & Production. Jim Arket and Mona Williams of Grubb & Ellis represented Dominion in negotiations. Joe Peddie, David Guion and Hugh Hermann of Cushman & Wakefield represented Eagle Rock. Terms of the lease were not disclosedFor more information on Houston office space, Houston retail space or Houston warehouse space and Houston industrial space, please call 713 782-0260 or see my web site at : www.houstonrealtyadvisors.com Offer opportunities for Houston office space. Thank you for your interest.
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Thursday, October 15, 2009
Are things getting better in USA? COSTAR REPORTS
While there has been a noteworthy decrease in the amount of cross-border real estate investment in the Americas since the beginning of the economic crisis, new activity is springing optimism that foreign investors are increasing their interest and preparing to re-enter the Americas next year, according to Jones Lang LaSalle's International Capital Group at a presentation this past at the Expo Real show in Munich, Germany. For the first half of 2009, global investment transaction volumes netted just $76 billion, according to JLL. The United States experienced the largest decline-falling by 77% year-over-year. Japan surpassed the United States and United Kingdom as the most active investor region with $15 billion in transactions in the first half of 2009. The United States was a close second at $14 billion, followed by the United Kingdom with $11 billion. But the U.S. situation may be improving based on recent news and deals. China Investment Corp., a $200 billion sovereign fund based in Beijing, last month agreed to invest up to $1 billion with Los Angeles-based private equity fund Oaktree Capital to buy distressed U.S. assets ranging from real estate to infrastructure. China Investment Corp. is also reportedly weighing putting equal amounts into two other U.S. funds for the same purpose. Action is coming from other countries as well. "In the last two months, we've seen German and Asian investors increase their interest in U.S. investment," said Steve Collins, managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle's International Capital Group. "Several stateside closings also are providing some early encouragement that foreign investors are slowing rising off the sidelines for the right opportunities in the best markets." "Right now, the coastal markets such as New York, [Washington, DC], and San Francisco are drawing interest from a select few foreign investors bidding and winning on off-market investments today," Collins added. "It seems the German open- and close-end funds and the Asian development companies are getting ready for an investment push in first quarter 2010." Also just this week one of Israel's largest holding company, The IDB Group, agreed to purchase the 452 Fifth Avenue Tower, HSBC's U.S. headquarters, for $330 million in an all-cash deal. IDB signed on a New York-based partner Joe Cayre, chairman of Midtown Equities, in the deal that is expected to close early next year. Under the terms of the agreement, HSBC will lease back floors one to 11 for a 10-year term, as well as other parts of the building over a one-year term. The 29-story 452 5th Ave Tower is comprised of approximately 865,000 square feet. Stateside investment activity started increasing in late summer, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. Notable transactions included the largest U.S. transaction to date in the sale of Worldwide Plaza at 825 Eighth Ave. in Manhattan. Local owner/operator George Comfort & Sons bought the former Macklowe property for $605 million in a joint venture with RCG Longview. Macklowe paid $1.7 for the previously fully leased building in 2007. The purchase reflects a net initial yield of 6.3% on what is now a 40% vacant building. If and when the building becomes fully stabilized in three or four years, the yield will likely be closer to 12%. It is widely believed in the market that the purchaser has new tenants lined up already. The other significant deal was also in Manhattan: SL Green's sale of its 49.5% interest in 485 Lexington to a joint venture between Gilmore USA and Optibase Ltd (an Israeli technology company). The joint venture paid a little less than $21 million and assumed the $450 million of existing debt on the building. This is Optibase's first real estate purchase in North America as it attempts to diversify its portfolio by investing in commercial real estate. Once the transaction closes, the joint venture reportedly plans to provide SL Green with a $20 million loan secured by an SL Green pledge to sell an additional 49.5% stake. A little farther down the East Coast in Washington, DC, the large public REIT Vornado sold 1999 K St. NW to Deka's Open Ended Fund for $208 million in the largest DC property transaction this year. The property, designed by Helmut Jahn, was completed just last month and is leased to the law firm Mayer Brown for 15 years. The purchase price equates to $830 per square foot. The last building to trade at such a high level was 2099 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, a Jones Lang LaSalle brokered and closed in April of 2008 that set a high watermark for DC office transactions at $867/square foot. Another trophy DC market transaction was Credit Suisse's purchase of 1099 New York Ave. NW from Tishman Speyer. It reportedly traded at a 7.4% for $90.5 million ($517/square foot). The building is 61% leased with a major law firm as the anchor tenant. Invesco was also active in D.C. and purchased the newly redeveloped headquarters for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency from Prudential Real Estate Investors for $153.6 million. The nearly 500,000-square-foot deal was all cash; however its non-core location yielded only $310/square foot. For more information on Houston office space, Houston retail space or Houston warehouse space and Houston industrial space, please call 713 782-0260 or see my web site at : www.houstonrealtyadvisors.com Offer opportunities for Houston office space. Thank you for your interest.
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Monday, October 12, 2009
Biggest Office Space owners in USA
1. RREEFTotal Office Portfolio: 93.6 million sq. ft.280 Park Ave., Ste. 22WNew York, NY 10017Phone: (212) 454-3900Web site: http://www.rreef.com/Officers: Charles B. Leitner, Global Head; Michael Luciano, Global COO2. Brookfield Properties Corp.Total Office Portfolio: 59.5 million sq. ft.Three World Financial Center200 Vesey St., Ste. 1100New York, NY 10281Phone: (212) 417-7000Web site: http://www.brookfieldproperties.com/Officers: Ric Clark, President/CEO; Dennis Friedrich, President/COO, U.S. Commercial Operations; Tom Farley, President/COO3. The Blackstone GroupTotal Office Portfolio: 57.9 million sq. ft.345 Park Ave.New York, NY 10154Phone: (212) 583-5000Web site: http://www.blackstone.com/Officers: Peter Peterson, senior chairman; Stephen Schwarzman, chairman/CEO; Hamilton James, president/COO4. HinesTotal Office Portfolio: 55.4 million sq. ft.2800 Post Oak Blvd.Houston, TX 77056Phone: (713) 621-8000Web site: http://www.hines.com/Officers: Gerald D. Hines, Chairman; Jeffrey C. Hines, President; C. Hastings Johnson, EVP/CFO5. CB Richard Ellis InvestorsTotal Office Portfolio: 49.8 million sq. ft.515 S. Flower St., 31st FloorLos Angeles, CA 90071Phone: (213) 683-4300Web site: http://www.cbreinvestors.com/Officers: Vance Maddocks, CEO; William Harris, President/COO; Robert Zerbst, Chairman6. TIAA-CREFTotal Office Portfolio: 47 million sq. ft.730 Third Ave.New York, NY 11762-3206Phone: (800) 842-2733Web site: http://www.tiaa-cref.org/Officers: Scott Evans, EVP, Asset Management; Edward Grzybowski, CIO; Thomas Garbutt, head, global real estate7. ING Clarion PartnersTotal Office Portfolio: 46.8 million sq. ft.230 Park AveNew York, NY 10169Phone: (212) 883-2500Web site: http://www.ingclarion.com/Officers: Stephen Furnary, CEO/Managing Director; Bill Kracuh, Global Marketing Head; Frank Sullivan, Managing Director8. Vornado Realty TrustTotal Office Portfolio: 44.2 million sq. ft.888 Seventh Ave.New York, NY 10019Phone: (212)894-7000Web site: http://www.vno.com/Officers: Steven Roth, Chairman/CEO; Michael D. Fascitelli, President; Joseph Macnow, EVP/CFO9. Boston PropertiesTotal Office Portfolio: 43.8 million sq. ft.800 Boylston St., Ste. 1900Boston, MA 02199Phone: (617) 236-3300Web site: http://www.bostonproperties.com/Officers: Mortimer B. Zuckerman, Chairman; Edward H. Linde, CEO; Douglas T. Linde, President10. LaSalle Investment ManagementTotal Office Portfolio: 39 million sq. ft.200 East Randolph Dr.Chicago, IL 60601Phone: (312) 782-5800Web site: http://www.lasalle.com/Officers: Jeff Jacobson, CEO; Jaques Gordon, International Director, Research & Strategy; Matthew Reed, International Co-Head, Acquisitions11. Duke Realty Corp.Total Office Portfolio: 36.3 million sq. ft.600 E. 96th St., Ste. 100Indianapolis, IN 46240Phone: (317) 808-6000Web site: http://www.dukerealty.com/Officers: Dennis D. Oklak, Chairman/CEO; Robert M. Chapman, COO12. HRPT Properties TrustTotal Office Portfolio: 35.3 million sq. ft.400 Centre St.Newton, MA 02458Phone: (617) 332-3990Web site: http://www.hrpreit.com/Officers: John A. Mannix, President/COO; John C. Popeo, Treasurer/CFO; Jennifer B. Clark, SVP13. Mack-Cali Realty Corp.Total Office Portfolio: 33.3 million sq. ft.343 Thornall St.Edison, NJ 08837Phone: (732) 590-1000Web site: http://www.mack-cali.com/Officers: Mitchell E. Hersh, President/CEO; Barry Lefkowitz, EVP/CFO; Michael Grossman, EVP14. SL Green Realty Corp.Total Office Portfolio: 32.2 million sq. ft.420 Lexington Ave.New York, NY 10170Phone: 212-356-4109Officers: Marc Holliday, CEO; Andrew Mathias, President/CIO; Greg Hughes, CFO & COO15. Brandywine Realty TrustTotal Office Portfolio: 31.9 million sq. ft.555 E. Lancaster Ave., Ste. 100Radnor, PA 19087Phone: (610) 325-5600Web site: http://www.brandywinerealty.com/Officers: Gerard H. Sweeney, President/CEO; Howard Sipzner, EVP/CFO; George Johnstone, SVP, Operations16. Behringer HarvardTotal Office Portfolio: 30.4 million sq. ft.15601 Dallas Pkwy., Ste. 600Addison, TX 75001Phone: (214) 655-1600Officers: Robert Behringer, CEO; Bob Aisner, President/COO; Bob Chapman, EVP/Co-COO17. J.E. Robert Cos.Total Office Portfolio: 27.7 million sq. ft.1650 Tysons Blvd, Ste. 1600McLean, VA 22102Phone: (703) 714-8000Web site: http://www.jer.com/Officers: Joseph E. Robert Jr., Founder/CEO; Michael E. Pralle, President/COO; Malcolm LeMay, President, Europe18. Highwoods PropertiesTotal Office Portfolio: 25.7 million sq. ft.3100 Smoketree Court, Ste. 600Raleigh, NC 27604Phone: (919) 431-1521Web site: http://www.highwoods.com/Officers: Ed Fritsch, President/CEO; Mike Harris, EVP/COO; Terry Stevens, SVP/CFO18. Liberty Property TrustTotal Office Portfolio: 25.7 million sq. ft.500 Chesterfield Pkwy.Malvern, PA 19355Phone: (610) 648-1700Web site: http://www.libertyproperty.com/Officers: William P. Hankowsky, Chairman/CEO; Robert E. Fenza, EVP/COO; George J. Alburger Jr., EVP/CFO19. Shorenstein PropertiesTotal Office Portfolio: 21.3 million sq. ft.235 Montgomery St., 16th FloorSan Francisco, CA 94104Phone: (415) 772-7000Web site: http://www.shorenstein.com/Officers: Douglas W. Shorenstein, Chairman/CEO; Glenn A. Shannon, President; Richard A. Chicotel, Managing Director/CFO20. Wells Real Estate FundsTotal Office Portfolio: 20.5 million sq. ft.6200 The Corners Pkwy.Norcross, GA 30092Phone: (770) 449-7800Web site: http://www.wellsref.com/Officers: Leo Wells, President; Don Henry, Chief Real Estate Officer; Kevin Race, CFO21. KBS Realty AdvisorsTotal Office Portfolio: 18.7 million sq. ft. 620 Newport Center Dr., Ste 1300Newport Beach, CA 92660Phone: (949) 417-6500Web site: http://www.kbsrealty.com/Officers: Charles J. Schreiber Jr., CEO; Peter M. Bren, Chairman/President; James C. Chiboucas, Vice Chairman22. The Inland Real Estate Group of Cos.Total Office Portfolio: 18 million sq. ft.2901 ButterfieldOak Brook, IL 60523Phone: (630) 218-8000Web site: http://www.inlandgroup.com/Officers: Daniel L. Goodwin, Chairman23. AEW Capital ManagementTotal Office Portfolio: 15.3 million sq. ft.World Trade Center East, Two Seaport LaneBoston, MA 02210Phone: (617) 261-9000Web site: http://www.aew.com/Officers: Jeffrey D. Furber, CEO; Steven D. Corkin, Managing Director, Marketing and Client Service; Pamela J. Herbst, Managing Director, AEW Direct Investments24. Lincoln Property Co.Total Office Portfolio: 14.6 million sq. ft.500 N. Akard, Ste. 3300Dallas, Texas 75201Phone: (214) 740-3300Web site: http://www.lincolnproperty.com/Officers: Mack Pogue, Chairman; Tim Byrne, President/CEO, Residential Divison; Bill Duvall, President/CEO, Commercial Division25. Forest City EnterprisesTotal Office Portfolio: 13.4 million sq. ft.Terminal Tower, 50 Public Square, Ste. 1100Cleveland, Ohio 44113Phone: (216) 621-6060Web site: http://www.forestcity.net/Officers: Samuel H. Miller, Co-Chairman; Albert B. Ratner, Co-Chairman; Charles A. Ratner, President/CEOFor more information see: www.houstonrealtyadvisors.com or www.houstonrealtyadvisors.net
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
GOOD NEW YORK POST ARTICLE
THE next wave of the credit crisis is about to hit -- a collapse in com mercial real estate and potential explosion of bank failures. With its resources tapped out by the first wave, what should Washington do?
Over the last year, the Federal Reserve doubled the size of its balance sheet, and took unprecedented action in monetizing government debt and extending credit to financial institutions. Now it must head off inflation and extricate itself from $5 trillion-plus in credit exposure from various bailouts. The Treasury, meanwhile, is issuing debt at the fastest pace in peacetime history.
Now comes the next crisis. The same factors that caused the residential bubble -- easy credit, lax lending standards and booming mortgage-backed-securities underwriting -- also drove commercial real-estate overvaluation. But the commercial market lags the residential one by about a year, so this bubble is still popping.
Already, commercial-real-estate prices nationwide are 39 percent off their peak of two years ago, reports the MIT Center for Real Estate. The 18 percent price decline in this year's second quarter was the largest quarterly drop in 25 years.
Prices fell just 27 percent during the late-'80s/early-'90s savings-and-loan crisis -- a collapse that prompted the then-largest federal intervention ever -- $125 billion in the form of Resolution Trust Corp. seizures and auctions. Last year's crisis saw Congress providing nearly six times more to bail out the US financial sector. And that was only the start.
Most commercial properties bought or refinanced in the last five years are now upside-down on their loans -- that is, the property can't be sold for its finance value or purchase price. Real Capital Analytics reports that owners have lost their entire down payments on about $1.3 trillion worth of property.
Nearly half of all US commercial-real-estate-mortgage loans come due within the next five years. Deutsche Bank believes that 65 percent or more will fail to qualify for refinancing.
Absent new job creation -- and whatever nascent recovery is underway seems unlikely to produce net new jobs for several years -- vacancy rates will remain high. The action in commercial real estate will be largely subleasing -- at rents of 50 percent to 85 percent of scheduled lease rates. These lower sublease rates will eventually become the real market rates, putting further downward pressure on property values.
As things stand, this next wave of the crisis will sabotage the recovery -- driving up bank failures, FDIC bailouts and problems for some large insurance companies. Indeed, Congress will surely wind up having to bail out the FDIC itself.
What to do? For once, act before the bottom falls out.
1) Stop forcing banks to reclassify loans that have had minor modifications to assist borrowers. Such rules contribute to failure rather than averting it.
In some cases, it would be appropriate for regulators to permit the renewal of current loans at higher loan-to-value ratios, thus reducing unnecessary foreclosures. So long as loans are performing, and no actual losses have been incurred, banks shouldn't have to take charges against earnings and capital. We need to stop forcing the seizure of banks that aren't in genuine danger of failing.
2) Reject any new taxes on real estate -- such as capital-gains-tax hikes; changes to IRS Section 1031, which allows tax deferral; and efforts to change the tax status of "carried interest." Plus, modernize the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act of 1980 to encourage foreign investment in US real estate.
3) Amend the IRS Tax Reform Act of 1986 to allow modification of loans within Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduits (REMICSs). Some 25 percent of US commercial real estate is financed with these securities.
The tax code permits REMICs to pool commercial-mortgage loans into trust-like instruments commonly known as CMBS, which issue interest-bearing securities based on their value. Tens of thousands of commercial mortgages are now locked into structured CMBS, just as with residential mortgages.
The Treasury recently announced an easing of rules on restructuring CMBS loans -- but it's only a start on what's needed. The changes have to go beyond protecting Wall Street interests, and defend the property owner's right to make improvements and changes in building space without triggering a default or foreclosure on the loan backing the corresponding property.
Amending REMIC laws to allow property modification and expansion would preserve jobs for businesses that need to make better use of space -- and create construction jobs to make those modifications. It also supports states with much needed sales and business tax revenue.
Make no mistake -- the bust of commercial real estate will bring dozens more bank failures and a huge loss of wealth. More bailouts of financial institutions are inevitable -- but immediate government leadership in key areas can greatly reduce the cost to taxpayers, and help dodge a killer bullet to our economy.
BY: Scott S. Powell is the founder of AlphaQuest, a hedge-fund consulting firm and a Hoover Institution visiting fellow. David Lowry is an owner/developer of Southern California commercial real estate.
For more information on Houston office space, Houston retail space or Houston warehouse space and Houston industrial space, please call 713 782-0260 or see my web site at : www.houstonrealtyadvisors.com Offer opportunities for Houston office space. Thank you for your interest.
FACEBOOK at http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/profile.php?id=1223783810&ref=nf
Thanks,
Ed A. Ayres
Houston Realty Advisors, Inc.
Mitaquye oyasin
Over the last year, the Federal Reserve doubled the size of its balance sheet, and took unprecedented action in monetizing government debt and extending credit to financial institutions. Now it must head off inflation and extricate itself from $5 trillion-plus in credit exposure from various bailouts. The Treasury, meanwhile, is issuing debt at the fastest pace in peacetime history.
Now comes the next crisis. The same factors that caused the residential bubble -- easy credit, lax lending standards and booming mortgage-backed-securities underwriting -- also drove commercial real-estate overvaluation. But the commercial market lags the residential one by about a year, so this bubble is still popping.
Already, commercial-real-estate prices nationwide are 39 percent off their peak of two years ago, reports the MIT Center for Real Estate. The 18 percent price decline in this year's second quarter was the largest quarterly drop in 25 years.
Prices fell just 27 percent during the late-'80s/early-'90s savings-and-loan crisis -- a collapse that prompted the then-largest federal intervention ever -- $125 billion in the form of Resolution Trust Corp. seizures and auctions. Last year's crisis saw Congress providing nearly six times more to bail out the US financial sector. And that was only the start.
Most commercial properties bought or refinanced in the last five years are now upside-down on their loans -- that is, the property can't be sold for its finance value or purchase price. Real Capital Analytics reports that owners have lost their entire down payments on about $1.3 trillion worth of property.
Nearly half of all US commercial-real-estate-mortgage loans come due within the next five years. Deutsche Bank believes that 65 percent or more will fail to qualify for refinancing.
Absent new job creation -- and whatever nascent recovery is underway seems unlikely to produce net new jobs for several years -- vacancy rates will remain high. The action in commercial real estate will be largely subleasing -- at rents of 50 percent to 85 percent of scheduled lease rates. These lower sublease rates will eventually become the real market rates, putting further downward pressure on property values.
As things stand, this next wave of the crisis will sabotage the recovery -- driving up bank failures, FDIC bailouts and problems for some large insurance companies. Indeed, Congress will surely wind up having to bail out the FDIC itself.
What to do? For once, act before the bottom falls out.
1) Stop forcing banks to reclassify loans that have had minor modifications to assist borrowers. Such rules contribute to failure rather than averting it.
In some cases, it would be appropriate for regulators to permit the renewal of current loans at higher loan-to-value ratios, thus reducing unnecessary foreclosures. So long as loans are performing, and no actual losses have been incurred, banks shouldn't have to take charges against earnings and capital. We need to stop forcing the seizure of banks that aren't in genuine danger of failing.
2) Reject any new taxes on real estate -- such as capital-gains-tax hikes; changes to IRS Section 1031, which allows tax deferral; and efforts to change the tax status of "carried interest." Plus, modernize the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act of 1980 to encourage foreign investment in US real estate.
3) Amend the IRS Tax Reform Act of 1986 to allow modification of loans within Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduits (REMICSs). Some 25 percent of US commercial real estate is financed with these securities.
The tax code permits REMICs to pool commercial-mortgage loans into trust-like instruments commonly known as CMBS, which issue interest-bearing securities based on their value. Tens of thousands of commercial mortgages are now locked into structured CMBS, just as with residential mortgages.
The Treasury recently announced an easing of rules on restructuring CMBS loans -- but it's only a start on what's needed. The changes have to go beyond protecting Wall Street interests, and defend the property owner's right to make improvements and changes in building space without triggering a default or foreclosure on the loan backing the corresponding property.
Amending REMIC laws to allow property modification and expansion would preserve jobs for businesses that need to make better use of space -- and create construction jobs to make those modifications. It also supports states with much needed sales and business tax revenue.
Make no mistake -- the bust of commercial real estate will bring dozens more bank failures and a huge loss of wealth. More bailouts of financial institutions are inevitable -- but immediate government leadership in key areas can greatly reduce the cost to taxpayers, and help dodge a killer bullet to our economy.
BY: Scott S. Powell is the founder of AlphaQuest, a hedge-fund consulting firm and a Hoover Institution visiting fellow. David Lowry is an owner/developer of Southern California commercial real estate.
For more information on Houston office space, Houston retail space or Houston warehouse space and Houston industrial space, please call 713 782-0260 or see my web site at : www.houstonrealtyadvisors.com Offer opportunities for Houston office space. Thank you for your interest.
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Thanks,
Ed A. Ayres
Houston Realty Advisors, Inc.
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